The case for Children First
MO-02 by the numbers
Fewer children are growing up in our district, and our region is aging faster than most of the country. These aren't projections — they're the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates. They're why putting children first is the fight this campaign leads with.
Our district
The child population is shrinking across MO-02
Between 2020 and 2025, the number of children under 15 fell across MO-02's core counties — St. Louis County (of which MO-02 holds the western/central part) dropped 5.9% and Jefferson County 5.6%. Those are the two MO-02 counties captured in this St. Louis-metro dataset; the district's three rural counties — Washington, Crawford, and Gasconade — sit outside it.
Children under 15 are declining across MO-02
Children under 15 fell across MO-02's core counties from 2020 to 2025: St. Louis County −5.9% and Jefferson County −5.6%. These are the two MO-02 counties in the St. Louis MSA dataset; the district's three rural counties (Washington, Crawford, Gasconade) are outside this dataset, and MO-02 includes only the western/central part of St. Louis County.
| County | 2020 | 2025 | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County | 182,884 | 172,144 | -10,740 | -5.9% |
| Jefferson County | 43,151 | 40,755 | -2,396 | -5.6% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2025 Vintage · analysis J.S. Sándoval, SLU
The St. Louis region
A regional and national outlier
The decline isn't just local. Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, St. Louis has one of the steepest drops in young children in the country — and its population is aging into a senior-heavy structure.
St. Louis: 3rd-worst U.S. metro for the decline in young children
Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, St. Louis ranks 3rd-worst for the percentage decline in children under 5 (2020–2025, −11.2%), behind only Los Angeles and San Jose.
| Rank | Metro | Fewer children under 5 | % decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 116,868 | -16.0% |
| 2 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 14,681 | -13.1% |
| 3 | St. Louis, MO-IL | 18,267 | -11.2% |
| 4 | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN | 59,826 | -11.1% |
| 5 | Salt Lake City-Murray, UT | 9,236 | -10.7% |
| 6 | San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 20,607 | -10.6% |
| 7 | San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 24,315 | -9.9% |
| 8 | Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 12,509 | -9.3% |
| 9 | Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 8,905 | -9.3% |
| 10 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 27,734 | -9.3% |
| 11 | Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV | 12,566 | -9.1% |
| 12 | Pittsburgh, PA | 10,108 | -8.4% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2025 Vintage · analysis J.S. Sándoval, SLU
St. Charles County is aging: seniors now outnumber children
From 2020 to 2025 St. Charles County's under-15 share fell from 19% to 17% while the 65+ share rose from 16% to 19% — most of the county's +21,233 growth was residents age 60 and older.
| Age group | 2020 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 405,266 | 426,499 | 21,233 |
| Age 0-4 | 23,101 | 21,475 | -1,626 |
| Age 5-9 | 26,322 | 25,435 | -887 |
| Age 10-14 | 28,130 | 27,719 | -411 |
| Age 15-19 | 27,481 | 27,759 | 278 |
| Age 20-24 | 23,344 | 26,132 | 2,788 |
| Age 25-29 | 22,926 | 25,253 | 2,327 |
| Age 30-34 | 26,677 | 26,654 | -23 |
| Age 35-39 | 28,656 | 29,304 | 648 |
| Age 40-44 | 26,406 | 30,472 | 4,066 |
| Age 45-49 | 25,383 | 27,157 | 1,774 |
| Age 50-54 | 25,538 | 25,056 | -482 |
| Age 55-59 | 29,076 | 25,081 | -3,995 |
| Age 60-64 | 27,135 | 27,826 | 691 |
| Age 65-69 | 21,683 | 26,328 | 4,645 |
| Age 70-74 | 17,135 | 20,763 | 3,628 |
| Age 75-79 | 11,735 | 15,718 | 3,983 |
| Age 80-84 | 7,499 | 9,866 | 2,367 |
| Age 85+ | 7,039 | 8,501 | 1,462 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2025 Vintage · analysis J.S. Sándoval, SLU
St. Louis MSA: fewer children, more seniors (2020–2025)
In the St. Louis metro, the youngest cohorts shrank (under-5 down 18,267 since 2020) while 65+ cohorts grew — the under-5 group is now the smallest age band under 75.
| Age group | 2020 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2,820,862 | 2,814,421 | -6,441 |
| Age 0-4 | 163,207 | 144,940 | -18,267 |
| Age 5-9 | 171,078 | 165,038 | -6,040 |
| Age 10-14 | 181,062 | 171,611 | -9,451 |
| Age 15-19 | 180,573 | 175,312 | -5,261 |
| Age 20-24 | 173,765 | 170,275 | -3,490 |
| Age 25-29 | 181,947 | 180,295 | -1,652 |
| Age 30-34 | 186,988 | 184,323 | -2,665 |
| Age 35-39 | 186,650 | 189,568 | 2,918 |
| Age 40-44 | 169,434 | 186,844 | 17,410 |
| Age 45-49 | 165,471 | 168,947 | 3,476 |
| Age 50-54 | 173,778 | 158,973 | -14,805 |
| Age 55-59 | 200,394 | 165,298 | -35,096 |
| Age 60-64 | 197,334 | 187,256 | -10,078 |
| Age 65-69 | 163,277 | 181,347 | 18,070 |
| Age 70-74 | 126,206 | 147,483 | 21,277 |
| Age 75-79 | 85,444 | 109,069 | 23,625 |
| Age 80-84 | 55,580 | 66,455 | 10,875 |
| Age 85+ | 58,674 | 61,387 | 2,713 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2025 Vintage · analysis J.S. Sándoval, SLU
National context
Among the oldest large metros
St. Louis ranks among the oldest large U.S. metros
St. Louis has the 9th-highest aging index among the 50 largest U.S. metros in 2025, with 20.1% of residents age 65 and older.
| Rank | Metro | Aging index 2025 | % 65+ (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh, PA | 158.9 | 23.5% |
| 2 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 142.0 | 21.8% |
| 3 | Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 138.1 | 20.6% |
| 4 | Cleveland, OH | 137.0 | 22.2% |
| 5 | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | 136.9 | 21.0% |
| 6 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 130.9 | 20.6% |
| 7 | Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 125.2 | 19.0% |
| 8 | San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 124.9 | 18.7% |
| 9 | St. Louis, MO-IL | 117.5 | 20.1% |
| 10 | Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 116.1 | 18.1% |
| 11 | Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 114.4 | 19.1% |
| 12 | Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | 114.4 | 19.5% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2025 Vintage · analysis J.S. Sándoval, SLU
Why this matters
Today's decline in children becomes tomorrow's smaller schools, workforce, and communities. Reversing it means making MO-02 a place where families can afford to put down roots and raise kids. That is the heart of Children First and the CHILD Protection Act.
Source for every figure on this page: U.S. Census Bureau 2025 Vintage · analysis J.S. Sándoval, SLU. Figures are county- and metro-level Census estimates. Under the 2025 map, MO-02 is St. Louis County (part), Jefferson, Washington, Crawford, and Gasconade; only St. Louis County and Jefferson appear in this St. Louis-metro dataset.